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Market Analysis: Q1 2018. What’s Moving in the Market?

by John Mayhead
23 April 2018 3 min read
Market Analysis: Q1 2018. What’s Moving in the Market?
VW Golf GTi Mk 1

The latest update to the Hagerty Price Guide was published on 20th April. The Guide now covers 1,987 models, and we’ve recently expanded our coverage of various ranges including the Citroen DS/ID, BMW Z3, Lancia Montecarlo, Lamborghini Diablo and others.

Overall, the market seems to be returning to a state of growth: the Hagerty Classic Index (which tracks 50 popular classics) showed an average rise of 3.38%, up from 1.78% in late 2017. News from the trade seems to support this: despite the awful weather, dealers are reporting that spring 2018 has been a good time after a period of uncertainty from the end of summer 2017.

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Just two cars on the Index fell this quarter: the Austin-Healey 100-4 BN1 (down 0.63% to an average of £47,625) and the Ferrari Testarossa (down 2.76% to an average of £113,675). Whilst the Austin-Healey fall is negligible, the Testarossa’s dip continues a trend that has seen the model lose value steadily over the last four HPG updates. Hagerty feels this says more about the massive rise in advertised Testarossa prices that took place over the period to late 2016 that just weren’t sustainable for all but the very best. As an example, one low mileage, RHD car in very good condition that was expected to sell for £110,000 to £130,000 at H&H Duxford in March sold for just £106,875 inclusive of costs.

Other car values were flat. The Ford Capri Mk III 2.8i remained at an average of £14,550, flat after a period of quick increase. Even a cosseted, low-mileage Capri 280 once owned by Mark Blundell failed to sell at Silverstone Race Retro sale; maybe big-engined Capri fever has abated for the moment. The Lotus Esprit Turbo SE was also a non-mover at £19,850 average.

Many cars maintained a healthy, albeit quite small increase in value. The Triumph Stag rose 2.65% to an average of £17,425, helped by a big increase in the very top values of these once inexpensive roadsters. The Volkswagen Golf Mk I 1.6 rose 5.41% to an average of £14,625, again with a significant rise in top values, and continuing this car’s upward trend. Finally, the Jensen Interceptor Mk III rose 3.01%, with the car’s average being a shade under £60,000.

A few cars made double-digit rises. The Citroen DS21 EFI Pallas made a jump of 21.75% to an average of £22,750, although this could be affected by our expansion of that model range during this update which created an anomaly. A rise of 16.53% for the Lancia Fulvia Sport Zagato to an average of £29,075 is more indicative. This car was undervalued for a long time, and even less-than-perfect examples are doing well: an older restoration with a top estimate of £8,000 made double that at the Bonhams Members’ Meeting sale.

Overall, we believe we’re seeing the market continue to stabilise, with values of popular classics continuing to rise steadily and those that were overpriced (like the Capri and Testarossa mentioned above) falling to realistic levels. The latter takes time: it’s hard for dealers and private sellers to admit they’ve caught a cold, but we’re not expecting too many more corrections. True ‘bargain’ risers like the Fulvia Sport Zagato are exceptionally rare now: most of the good cars from good marques have already been identified and snapped up. It’s no coincidence that we’re tracking newer and newer models; bargain hunters are having to look to more modern cars to find their quarry. We expect that trend to continue, and for the big percentage risers of summer 2018 to be post-1990 cars.

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Comments

  • Sussex says:

    Rubbish! There’s lots of great value pre 1980 cars still out there! Lancia Fulvia and pre 1980 Jaguar XJ6 being great examples – a lot of car for smallish money.

  • Saltash Cornwall says:

    With my car, a 1964 Singer Vogue series 2,in very good original condition, I find going to shows here in the West Country most of the public viewing the cars are more interested in the type of cars they or a relative used to own ie Rootes Group, Ford, BMC etc and like to talk about them and say they wish they had held onto them and I have been quite surprised at some of the serious offers that I have refused for my car way above what I would have expected it to be worth From my experience, over the past 5-6 yrs, affordable classic cars in good condition are very much in demand compared to the more “exotic” types.which have a very limited market.due to the very high prices.

  • South West uk says:

    Can anyone give an opinion on the future for the now no longer available Land Rover Defenders? Their price appears to be rocketing!

  • Camberley, Surrey. says:

    I have a 1996 BMW 740i that I’ve owned since new. I was wondering whether this is likely to rise in value being a post 90’s car? Only 70k miles in Oxford Green and immaculate.

  • UK says:

    Interesting, guessing that a few exceptional cars have bumped values up in some of these examples

  • Bucks. says:

    I have had my TR4a since 1973, I worked at the company. I am sorry that the value has risen, why? Insurance cost had risen and the probability of having it stolen has increased. Also, it stands out more now as a classic car, to me it was a car used on a daily basis to go to work in, go on holiday in and do the shopping in. Years ago it was just an old sports car, now it is classed as a classic.

  • London says:

    Great to see the Jensen Interceptor getting more traction…it’s an awesomely beautiful late 60’s classic with brutish power. ??

  • South West says:

    Never understood why Jensen prices have been so low compared to E types and Astons . Great to see they are slowly coming up

  • Kent says:

    Over optimistic owners,dealers have pushed prices of cars that, had they been offered as a company car in their day, you would have handed in your notice, to absolutely silly levels. I have been an enthusiast for 40 years but no way would I spend 40k for an old Escort.I wasnt keen on the mk2 RS2000 I had when it cost £1000. Nostalgia does strange things to people. My £1000 1967 Hunter draws much interest and my 1999 Rover BRM [£1000] is so much fun..Why pay more?

  • North Yorkshire says:

    Although the Chrysler Crossfire has not yet entered into the age group of a modern classic, do you think it will ever be recognised for what its true worth is. Although Clarkson dissed the car way back in 2004, for its looks {that was the coupe not the convertible] I believe the this vehicle to be one of the most driveable sports cars on the road, with its 3.2L Mercedes engine and auto Gearbox. Lets face 0-60mph in 6.5 seconds, its no slug. Plus it handles like a dream. Get real classic car drivers, this car is an icon.

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