Author: John Mayhead
This is the first of three columns written by market expert and UK Hagerty Price Guide Editor, John Mayhead, tracking the ups and downs of the classic car market in 2024.
Consolidation and Contraction
The classic car market fell in nearly every aspect in 2024, and the auction world followed suit. The global total of the sales tracked by Hagerty was down from £661M in 2023 to £575M, and for the first time, the average EU/UK sale value was higher for online auctions (£25,340) than live auctions (£20,081). Hagerty’s measure of demand, comparing buyers’ willingness to spend (sale prices) vs sellers’ expectations (low estimate) showed average sale prices in 2024 were still 11.1 percent over the average low pre-sale estimate but down three points from the previous year.
The auction world reacted in various ways. At the top end, there were some major movements, with Gooding & Company taken over by auction heavyweight Christie’s and Hagerty’s own Broad Arrow Group partnering with BMW to host the prestigious Villa d’Este auction from 2025. Across the spectrum, buyers became pickier and auctioneers had to temper sellers’ expectations, as Mathew Priddy, head of auctions at Historics, told me.
“Whilst the volume of buyers has decreased, those bidding on exceptional cars appear to have little concern provided the car has a realistic estimate. Vendors are becoming more acclimatised to realistic values and live auctions such as ours are beneficial as a true barometer of real time values.”
This year, Hagerty tracked live and online auction results from all over the world, including over 20,000 sales from the UK and Europe. Nearly 17,000 of these were from the UK with 12,807 sales completed (77 percent) showing that the UK’s network of smaller, live auctions and booming online sales are still very active.
US Remains Dominant
But the US remained the dominant market, worldwide. Eight of the ten top global sales worldwide were recorded there, the only exceptions being a 1960 Ferrari 250 GT SWB Competizione, sold in Paris in February and a 1979 Ferrari 312 T4, sold in Monaco in May, both by RM Sotheby’s. No British auction results featured on the list, although two no-sales would have featured had they reached their reserves: a 1957 Jaguar XKSS estimated at £9M to £11M that failed to sell in London in November, and a 1960 Ferrari GT SWB estimated at £5M to £6M offered at Cliveden in June, both again by RM Sotheby’s. Of the 20 global auction results that were highest compared with pre-sale estimate, 10 were at the Monterey sales in August, showing this to remain the powerhouse in live auctions.
Online Sales
Online, the story was the same with eight of the ten top sales in America and just two, a 2015 Porsche 918 Spyder and a 2012 Bugatti Veyron Grand Sport, sold in Europe, both by Collecting Cars. This year, PCARMARKET took the top online sale with a 2014 Ferrari LaFerrari that sold for $4.155M (£3.24M) but numerically, Bring a Trailer continued its dominance taking six of the top ten slots and Car & Classic remained the biggest volume seller in the UK.
It is noticeable that seven of the ten top global online sales were for modern performance cars built since 2012. In comparison, the top ten live auction results worldwide didn’t feature any cars newer than 1997. In fact, of the 20 most valuable cars that failed to sell in the UK/EU this year at live auction, 12 were built since the year 2002.
But things are looking up as Car & Classic head Tom Wood told me. “It definitely feels as if price drops are flattening out now and the market is excited to grab a bargain compared to where values were 18 months ago.”
His optimism seems to be supported by the data, with relatively strong final sales of 2024 both online and off, and big lots already emerging for 2025 including the potentially record-breaking 1954 Mercedes-Benz W196R Stromlienenwagen that will be auctioned by RM Sotheby’s in February. Estimated at over €50M, that could set the precedent for another year when growth returns to the market.
What are your thoughts on the article above? We would love to hear at hdc@hagerty.co.uk.